Friday, October 2, 2009

True September Unemployment in America Reaches Towards 14%; Our System is Broken

I actually hate doing any form of analysis on the monthly unemployment figures because it is "junk in, junk out". Analyzing junk leads to useless conclusions... here are some of the basic facts
  • worst than expected job losses - I won't reprint the number because (a) it's a lie and (b) it will be revised down in the future
  • hours worked at all time lows
  • wage growth at a measly 0.1%
First, the whole notion that a $14 trillion economy can be measured on any level 3-4-5 days after a month end is preposterous. Second, as we've outlined for over 2 years many of our economic reports have been "juiced" to the sunny side because apparently the people cannot handle the truth - the monthly labor report is among the worst. If you are newer to the website please spend some time this weekend revealing to yourself what is behind the curtain. It is too annoying to go over each time but I've summarized the countless ways these figures have been cajoled in this piece [Apr 3, 2009: Real March Unemployment Rate Reaches 12.5%] - only only wishes the mainstream media would do the same homework.

Know this, if the government still reported unemployment as it did pre early 1990s when politicians started deciding the old ways no longer work, our unemployment rate would be about 4% higher than "as reported". So each time you hear "as bad as early 1980s", realize it is far worse - the "adjusted" numbers of 2009 are as bad as the early 1980s... an apple to apple comparison (as close as I can get it) shows us somewhere near 14%... basically all the 'explaining away' of reality provides a 4% variance so whatever you hear on the national nightly news... add 4%. *That* figures can be compared to the late 70s/early 80s or whatever period of time people wish.

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Here is another reason these figures are absurd, and even more absurd the lemmings of Wall Street react to these figures as if they are truth.
  • The Labor Department today also published its preliminary estimate for the annual benchmark revisions to payrolls that will be issued in February. They showed the economy may have lost an additional 824,000 jobs in the 12 months ended March 2009.
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Let's sit back and analyze that for a moment; with the caveat that it is somehow close to being accurate. Remember all those "better than expected" employment figures we rallied on? Remember all that market capitalization we added to the stock market as economists forecast job losses of 400K in month ABC, and it came in at 375K instead? Do you see what a farce it all is? Now WAY after the fact the government comes in and says "oopsie" we were off by 824K jobs ... divide that by 12 months and you get about 70,000 jobs a month.

So all those months we "beat" an estimate by 30, 40, 50K jobs and cried "recovery" and drove stocks up... you see in retrospect how it's all just a game. I assume many of these jobs they are now taking back are the fake jobs the statisticans have been adding each month via the birth / death model (this is a complete guess by government as to how many small business jobs the US is spawning each month) Read about the hoax here ---> [Jan 27, 2008: Monthly Jobs Report & Birth Death Model]

Here is the reality - this is not something that just happened the past few years. We've hollowed out our economy as we transform into a SHAM WOW service economy. The main job growth the past decade has been "building homes" and "financing homes". What America has become is basically parallel to that old school technology company which is losing its edge. As it stagnates, it still wants to please Wall Street and post "good numbers". So what does it do? It cuts expense - heads, and more importantly Research & Development. What does that allow it to do? To provide a pretense of "stability" and by not investing in its future it allows said company to "beat the number" today. That can go on for a while... but it is a mirage. And then one day there is little left to cut and the company is exposed for what it truly is. That is what has happened to the US economy, but over a longer period of time. It is now being exposed, SLOWLY but SURELY.

We have not invested - we have not educated properly - we have done smoke and mirrors for a decade now, going through stock market bubbles and real estate bubbles to compensate for lack of job growth & wage growth in the middle class. And now the bill is coming due. And we are STILL IN DENIAL. We have not created 1 (net) private sector job in a decade. [Aug 14, 2009: No New Normal Say Economists; Prosperity Without Jobs?] What have we created instead? More and more unfunded liabilities for the future generations to deal with - job growth is surging in federal government and healthcare - effectively we are transferring our jobs from the private sector the public. Why can this happen? Because in the private sector you have to pay your bills now. You cannot create jobs unless you can pay for them. In the public sector you can create jobs today and not worry about paying for them for decades... that is what our federal government and healthcare systems are. I read in the past two weeks that in Michigan there are 18 job seekers for every 1 job. Nationally, that figure is 1 job seeker for each job. In Washington D.C.? 1 job seeker for every 1 job. Do I need to say anything more about what is happening?

4 comments:

  1. we sell luggage in our store, mostly duffle bags for 12-30$. there is a small nigerian community near by. now mind you these are not [oil rich] nigerians. they are working class people. so yesterday i asked one of them " are you guys going back for vacation or what?" he said " no we are going back for good THIS COUNTRY NO GOOD NO MORE" hhmmmmm

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  2. It's a rather sad commentary on the state of our nation that they would rather go back to a place they left because of the squalid conditions rather than stay here. Are things really getting that bad?

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